Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4ce35051b350a426829822e9178794127aaf33abe9eed9e9f88fa0513f9b3d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,622$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 3c | 2,321$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe696…5a31backed No | 8c | 579.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 518.68$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 4c | 401.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 36c | 399.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 392.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked No | 15c | 376.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 62c | 368.51$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 366.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 312.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 19c | 309.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 58c | 297.91$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 43c | 252.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 78c | 250.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 56c | 244.95$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d6…1c0abacked No | 55c | 230.3$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 11c | 214.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 183.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.91 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 165.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 162.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 24c | 152.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 41c | 147.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7219backed Yes | 35c | 140.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 32c | 133.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 129.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 128.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 46c | 119.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 112.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 112.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 38c | 112.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 107.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 45c | 103.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 60c | 100.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…285ebacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…66abbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…8761backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 46c | 99.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 70c | 98.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 62c | 97.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 63c | 96.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…6f82backed No | 60c | 95.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 53c | 95.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 92.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…3025backed No | 64c | 87.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 83.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 58c | 82.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 81.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 80.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 34c | 74.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 46c | 68.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 68.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…18f3backed Yes | 43c | 65.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 34c | 60.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 59.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 24c | 59.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 58.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 56c | 57.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 69c | 56.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 52.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 51.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7745…230bbacked Yes | 36c | 51.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…78d1backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 53c | 49.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 48.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 37c | 47.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 47c | 47.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 39c | 46.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 47c | 41.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked Yes | 47c | 41.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d3…f696backed Yes | 36c | 41.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 69c | 40.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 38.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 29c | 37.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2093…758cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 34.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 30.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…0f16backed No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…ee5abacked No | 65c | 29.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 78c | 28.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 54c | 28.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 36c | 28.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…9fb9backed Yes | 51c | 28.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 48c | 27.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…6126backed No | 71c | 27.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.