Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2066c41adc4b04b5162a1744f051e55fe3130ff3d86df8a936f7ec97736d8fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 2c | 1,536$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…04ebbacked Yes | 2c | 915.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 2c | 665.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 605.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.59 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 583.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…7b2dbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 78c | 408.66$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 379.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 343.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 320.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 309.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 309.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 285.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 4c | 257.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 249.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 237.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 203.7$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 26c | 188.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 28c | 157.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 31c | 149.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 129.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…78d1backed Yes | 33c | 127.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 29c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 15c | 116.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 114.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 113.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 25c | 113.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 112.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 104.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 32c | 101.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 24c | 99.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 98.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 28c | 97.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…2847backed Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 43c | 82.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 36c | 80.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 33c | 79.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 72c | 79.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 74.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 73.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 69.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 21c | 69.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 68.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 68.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 26c | 65.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 62.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 40c | 62.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 40c | 59.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 56.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 55.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 65c | 55.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 19c | 54.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 35c | 53.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 21c | 50.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25cb…4621backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…8e5fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 74c | 49.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 30c | 46.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 38c | 44.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 30c | 44.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2093…758cbacked Yes | 32c | 43.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 29c | 40.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…75e8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d6…1c0abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…d088backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 37.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 68c | 34.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 69c | 33.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 36c | 31.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…372fbacked No | 75c | 30.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 77c | 29.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 67c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 38c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 72c | 26.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 72c | 26.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 77c | 24.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 74c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 73c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 71c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 71c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…3b5cbacked No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.