Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35c1b35753688081e1e44e206a8d7d62031009788f4f7398c9eed979d4ddc44d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 0c | 5,970$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…9d34backed Yes | 1c | 3,437$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 2,011$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…f773backed Yes | 1c | 1,749$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 3c | 1,118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…372fbacked No | 58c | 1,014$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…f429backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 990.63$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 61c | 632.29$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.06 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 36c | 607.5$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.25 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 549.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 41c | 545.55$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 34c | 534.89$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 27c | 501.12$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.47 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 440$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 377.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 321.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 297.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 24c | 258.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1b84backed Yes | 41c | 254.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 66c | 249.53$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 39c | 218.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 217.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 205.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 72c | 201.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 201$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 182.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 178.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 27c | 178$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 79c | 169.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf92…7e3fbacked Yes | 29c | 151.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 66c | 127.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 36c | 122.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 39c | 120.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 20c | 118.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 42c | 118.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 113.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 61c | 98.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 71c | 98.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 93.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 31c | 89.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 31c | 84.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 84.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 67c | 79.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 61c | 79.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ba…4da2backed No | 80c | 78.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 77.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 76.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 33c | 75.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 69.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 42c | 67.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 26c | 62.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 68c | 61.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…0ecdbacked Yes | 39c | 61.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 58c | 60.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 62c | 59.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 58.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 38c | 54.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…18f3backed Yes | 27c | 51.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 25c | 50.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 40c | 50.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90fd…7b7abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…694fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…2847backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 61c | 48.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 43c | 47.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe696…5a31backed No | 71c | 44.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…0732backed Yes | 31c | 42.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 37c | 42.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 42.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 24c | 41.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 32c | 40.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…d088backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 39.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 32c | 39.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 34c | 38.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 43c | 38.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…f500backed Yes | 36c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked Yes | 32c | 37.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 29c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd0…872dbacked Yes | 32c | 34.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…121cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked No | 71c | 30.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.