Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd23525bc548668dc5d64206bedc0eecef8eca696d91f992020468c6443ae3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea5…6969backed Yes | 0c | 5,425$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 3,859$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,853$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.6 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 71c | 2,330$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.43 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,948$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…372fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,450$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 72c | 1,264$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.81 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 71c | 843.11$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 612.78$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 7c | 593.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 556.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 71c | 550.34$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1b84backed Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 70c | 499.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 27c | 459.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 451.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 71c | 440.83$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 77c | 407$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…b3f7backed Yes | 28c | 383.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 11c | 356.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 29c | 341.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 29c | 319.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 9c | 313.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed No | 73c | 296.94$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…c758backed Yes | 29c | 278.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 78c | 276.23$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 72c | 270$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 253$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 10c | 251.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 218.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 14c | 212.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 201$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed Yes | 29c | 189.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…629abacked Yes | 29c | 188.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 30c | 186.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Yes | 30c | 185.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 184.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 21c | 172.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…c345backed No | 72c | 158.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 155.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 72c | 149.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 135.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…d1febacked Yes | 29c | 132.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 13c | 128.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 128.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…3112backed Yes | 29c | 127.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 72c | 123.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 25c | 123.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 30c | 113.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed No | 74c | 106.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…9812backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 28c | 99.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 73c | 97.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked No | 72c | 97.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 72c | 97.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 29c | 96.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…8367backed Yes | 29c | 96.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 94.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 29c | 92.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 29c | 92.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes | 29c | 92.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 25c | 89.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 76c | 89.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 29c | 87.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 28c | 85.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 84.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 69c | 81.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 17c | 75.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 72c | 74.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 21c | 73.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 27c | 72.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 72.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7745…230bbacked No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5606…9bd7backed No | 72c | 67.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…39bfbacked No | 79c | 67.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 73c | 66.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 29c | 63.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 70c | 54.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 29c | 51.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ea…4512backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…d45dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c1e8backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 22c | 48.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 72c | 48.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…f844backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.