Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb36c94e0d6653f3102a1d1ebcfc404b146b8009d1c202d1fb6949de17b1c1467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed No | 1c | 62,248$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 5,248$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 1,578$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 48c | 1,135$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.7 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 851$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.56 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 39c | 704.38$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.14 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 64c | 617.12$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.28 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 610.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 544.18$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 7c | 532.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 23c | 482.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.04 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 58c | 431.14$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.38 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 422.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 80c | 394.95$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 40c | 392.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.33 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 31c | 372.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.53 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…c807backed Yes | 69c | 367.9$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 344.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 336.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.46 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 331.32$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 319.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 80c | 302.94$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 9c | 272.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…f844backed No | 69c | 265.37$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 39c | 248.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.56 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 240.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 60c | 238.84$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 29c | 202.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 201$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed No | 69c | 199.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 197.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 194.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 36c | 186.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.22 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 65c | 179.07$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 12c | 167.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 43c | 167.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed No | 70c | 164.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 160.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…5a18backed No | 9c | 150.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 70c | 145.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 142.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 34c | 136.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 131.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 76c | 127.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 41c | 118.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 63c | 117.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 111.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 23c | 98.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 41c | 96.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 59c | 95.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 87.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 51c | 86.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 80.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 69c | 74.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 47c | 73.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7219backed Yes | 27c | 73.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…1ce5backed No | 51c | 73.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…18f3backed Yes | 32c | 72.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 69.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 35c | 66.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…f773backed Yes | 43c | 64.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 46c | 62.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 61.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 60.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 48c | 58.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 44c | 57.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 46c | 55.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 29c | 55.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 55.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 47c | 55.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 22c | 53.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c9febacked No | 42c | 52.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed Yes | 36c | 51.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 44c | 51.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 47c | 50.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 79c | 49.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 23c | 49.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 48.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 66c | 47.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 37c | 46.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…0732backed Yes | 29c | 45.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 43.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 49c | 41.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 31c | 40.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 40.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked No | 68c | 40.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 39.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 39.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 67c | 35.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3b…7d7bbacked No | 59c | 33.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.