Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc481fdeb7f52ef568e472960af1d0fd1c78275bb53d4698a1641439423d4c07b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 38c | 454.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.57 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 78c | 444.77$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 400.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…eb9fbacked No | 37c | 358.88$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 69c | 309.48$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 34c | 178.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 122.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 63c | 114.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 37c | 112.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 66c | 109.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 67c | 108.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed No | 45c | 104.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 73c | 99.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 61c | 97.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 95.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 34c | 89.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 42c | 81.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 64c | 77.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 49c | 76.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 45c | 71.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 62c | 60.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 55.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 53.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 34c | 53.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 46c | 49.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 49.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 74c | 45.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 59c | 43.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 50c | 43.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 42.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 55c | 39.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 54c | 38.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 43c | 37.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 34c | 35.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 44c | 33.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc35…172ebacked Yes | 56c | 30.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 39c | 30.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 59c | 29.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 29.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 29.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 28.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 57c | 26.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…e470backed Yes | 58c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 63c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 22.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…dd29backed No | 63c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 60c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 21.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 55c | 20.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 20.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 64c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 53c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 57c | 17.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 59c | 16.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.