Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bc527cd9ea9af20545305541fd7690f401a12d259d7120f5fe0f796abd59cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 834.41$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 10c | 537.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 316.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 57c | 222.3$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…832fbacked Yes | 31c | 194.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 11c | 153.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 26c | 117.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 59c | 113.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 109.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 36c | 97.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 94.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed Yes | 42c | 71.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 61c | 71.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed Yes | 75c | 68.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 65.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 69c | 62.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 61.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 58c | 61.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 57.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 32c | 54.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 49.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 25c | 49.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 58c | 49.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…9d5dbacked Yes | 44c | 47.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 70c | 46.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 43.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 25c | 41.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…0269backed No | 66c | 38.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 38.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 63c | 38.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 51c | 37.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 68c | 36.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 66c | 34.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 56c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed No | 56c | 33.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…ed95backed No | 58c | 32.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…c1c6backed Yes | 42c | 32.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 30.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 80c | 27.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…b513backed Yes | 65c | 26.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 75c | 25.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…cdc6backed Yes | 71c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 48c | 24.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 73c | 24.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 74c | 23.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 74c | 21.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 61c | 21.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…50e6backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 67c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked Yes | 80c | 18.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…316abacked Yes | 66c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 78c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.