Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86d9402b01a7c3453e62b12c2ec3db29a889d6fe66f72cfca52f07929858a64c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c5…dd4ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,247$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…c1c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,706$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 1,521$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,338$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 3c | 990.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 653.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 496.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 27c | 353.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 336.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 331.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked No | 73c | 305.19$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 58c | 287.87$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 43c | 254.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 77c | 248.69$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 231.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 76c | 209.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 195.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 181.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 19c | 172.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ba…b875backed Yes | 9c | 145.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed Yes | 21c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 98.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…b513backed Yes | 29c | 98.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 53c | 97.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 95.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 54c | 88.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263b…853dbacked No | 58c | 82.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 68.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 68.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 32c | 68.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 39c | 66.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 38c | 63.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 45c | 54.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 45c | 39.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 68c | 37.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 40c | 35.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b48…ebdebacked Yes | 36c | 29.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 50c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 27.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 68c | 27.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…ab79backed No | 78c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 65c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 62c | 23.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…ed95backed No | 59c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…ab66backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…cdc6backed Yes | 58c | 17.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.