Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3b2e73966c7939216f64ef016bed12484bc9eaa8a4cbb2ce5ebf6a79af715fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 2c | 2,041$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 751.47$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 534.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 375.62$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 69c | 191.71$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 79c | 171.48$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 138.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.77 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 121.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 28c | 114$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 112.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 67c | 112.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 98.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 89.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 55c | 82.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 35c | 80.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 75.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 64.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc42…2a78backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 72c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 46.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 42c | 44.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 31c | 40.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…920fbacked Yes | 40c | 37.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 35.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 74c | 35.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 80c | 34.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 74c | 32.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 28.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 45c | 28.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 74c | 25.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 75c | 15.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.