Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd7216fd8b1fdb8b6197d473e1a763b09b7eddc3b2a3e9a704a4ceaf5c26eeb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe44…d6e5backed Yes | 0c | 29,074$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 3,695$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 2c | 1,423$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 47c | 900.16$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.39 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed No | 60c | 892.4$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 843.36$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 799.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 49c | 299.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 267.92$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa035…9009backed No | 74c | 264.44$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 30c | 195.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 77c | 191.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 35c | 175.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 132.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 56c | 129.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 61c | 124.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 53c | 118.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 26c | 117.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 113.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 61c | 107.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 48c | 102.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…920fbacked No | 51c | 102.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 73c | 99.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…b21ebacked Yes | 58c | 95.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 40c | 93.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 20c | 91.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 67c | 82.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…78d1backed No | 76c | 79.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 66c | 59.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 29c | 52.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed No | 48c | 51.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 39c | 49.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 48.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed No | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 43.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 65c | 42.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 32c | 40.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 47c | 40.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 48c | 39.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 71c | 38.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…7455backed Yes | 32c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 59c | 32.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 65c | 29.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 28.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 55c | 25.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 47c | 24.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 55c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 54c | 19.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…dd6cbacked Yes | 74c | 18.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 65c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.