Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3160472120fdd1298bbee0d4628a7aebd48d6804dec2560fda34b048a25b79bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 1,627$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 906.06$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 5c | 650.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 13c | 497.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.96 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 340.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 79c | 237.77$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 231.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 226.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 33c | 206.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.51 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 195.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 161$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 160.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 156.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 138.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 36c | 91.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 73c | 73.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 70c | 67.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 29c | 63.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 63.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 62.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 31c | 58.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 53.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 49.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 42.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 40.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 29.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…316abacked Yes | 45c | 28.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 68c | 28.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed No | 79c | 21.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 16.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.