Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e35404e8576329fe4b17dc563fb3f3fc6be6ce139378efc68c74a906a3cc474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 1,680$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.92 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 555.81$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 15c | 550.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 379.87$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 308.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 289.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 285.76$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed Yes | 22c | 281.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 278.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 28c | 265.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 243.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed No | 64c | 225.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 62c | 217.23$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 14c | 194.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 63c | 185.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 69c | 166.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 156.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 77c | 113.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 101.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 57c | 95.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 83.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 22c | 82.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 82.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 42c | 79.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 75.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed Yes | 20c | 68.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 74c | 64.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 53c | 52.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…bd50backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 41c | 45.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 76c | 41.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 48c | 39.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 48c | 35.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 50c | 27.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 56c | 25.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…33d0backed No | 79c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.