Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25c5d7820aaeede3f24923ffd64aea7c187417b2200b13e04aa81f3d7f43f22a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfff5…108fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,151$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 1,400$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 15c | 1,395$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 20c | 939.56$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.61 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 799.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 787.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 7c | 474.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 59c | 444.73$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.74 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 7c | 420.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 404.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 378.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 12c | 341.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 11c | 324.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 13c | 268.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 226.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 10c | 201.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 12c | 191.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 172.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 46c | 169.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 24c | 168.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 80c | 161.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 30c | 154.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 153.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 10c | 145.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 35c | 141.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 78c | 128.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked Yes | 77c | 120.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 73c | 120.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 118.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 108.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 101.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 101.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 72c | 100.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 11c | 99.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 95.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 15c | 86.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 64c | 85.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 71.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…33c7backed Yes | 16c | 71.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 25c | 67.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 23c | 65.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 78c | 64.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 30c | 59.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 33c | 51.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 72c | 51.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked No | 75c | 50.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 68c | 42.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 42c | 38.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…12cebacked Yes | 71c | 34.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…bcdbbacked No | 78c | 34.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 78c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…f68dbacked Yes | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 27.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 68c | 19.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 61c | 19.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 74c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 66c | 19.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 79c | 17.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 71c | 14.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.