Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b7986b07ebdc16996cb98f1bb4d6d8753e11e4916715ee2b6bc6634ab0d506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 31c | 1,055$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.11 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 32c | 387.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 369.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 321.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 312.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 303.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 23c | 303.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 263.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 257.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 254.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 80c | 184.58$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 18c | 180.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 13c | 173.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 171.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 33c | 150.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 74c | 148.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 37c | 141.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 140.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 34c | 140.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 72c | 138.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 34c | 115.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…44c0backed Yes | 13c | 114.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 18c | 103.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 99.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 13c | 97.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 26c | 95.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 31c | 94.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…5c0fbacked Yes | 33c | 94.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 15c | 92.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 27c | 92.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…e659backed Yes | 36c | 91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 32c | 89.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 84.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 81.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 17c | 79.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 17c | 78.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 74.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 69.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…cc1abacked Yes | 34c | 68.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 29c | 65.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 18c | 58.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 26c | 57.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 75c | 56.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 49c | 56.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 51c | 53.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 29c | 50.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…4067backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 49.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 21c | 49.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 49.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 25c | 48.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 39.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 30c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 72c | 34.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 71c | 31.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 38c | 31.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…e515backed No | 77c | 26.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 69c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 55c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cb04backed No | 80c | 18.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 73c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 75c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.