Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed729fcd118fa4ac17a54a28f09a14ed45b9eade4823e65ebaa24c899af6b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfff5…108fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,151$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 13c | 1,373$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.07 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…5c0fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,021$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 2c | 942.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 872.37$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 37c | 522.8$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 444.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 38c | 308.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 298.83$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…44c0backed Yes | 15c | 287.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 31c | 275.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 33c | 244.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 39c | 186.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 166.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…e2acbacked Yes | 28c | 164.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 151.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 74c | 141.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 40c | 140.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 76c | 127.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 35c | 114.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…78d1backed No | 79c | 112.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 112.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 110.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…8819backed No | 66c | 110.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90f…033bbacked No | 67c | 109.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…d10dbacked No | 71c | 109.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 108.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…6110backed No | 71c | 105.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 22c | 105.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…4cd7backed No | 80c | 101.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 101.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 47c | 100.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 94.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…bcdbbacked Yes | 39c | 91.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…e659backed Yes | 37c | 87.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…303cbacked No | 75c | 87.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 21c | 85.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 38c | 80.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 53c | 80.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 77.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…33c7backed Yes | 43c | 71.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 69.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…cc1abacked Yes | 38c | 67.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 38c | 66.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 65.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 40c | 62.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 56c | 62.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 65c | 50.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a292backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…d29dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 37c | 49.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 43c | 48.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed No | 63c | 47.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 47.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 42c | 47.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 46.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 65c | 45.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 43.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 38c | 41.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 68c | 37.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 43c | 36.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 36.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 61c | 36.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…dfedbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 34.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes | 40c | 31.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed Yes | 40c | 29.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 64c | 29.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 70c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 64c | 27.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 62c | 25.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…d6d9backed Yes | 57c | 25.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 71c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 24.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 60c | 23.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 71c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…03c3backed No | 62c | 21.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.