Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceeddcf04494810e23638efe36e510de5bc75ce82c2df57b28c2484d6bf6d988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 13c | 1,790$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.06 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 1,559$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 694.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 18c | 547.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 4c | 430.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 376.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 10c | 347.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 15c | 332.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 11c | 259.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 249.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 7c | 233.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 8c | 213.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 21c | 199.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 188.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 164.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 155$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 148.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 15c | 135.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 8c | 133.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 76c | 129.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 13c | 123.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…44c0backed Yes | 11c | 117.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 18c | 102.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 79c | 102.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 99.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 12c | 99.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 98.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 15c | 97.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 15c | 94.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 18c | 86.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…12cebacked Yes | 16c | 84.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 28.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…cc37backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.