Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe192653f0da793bc894a31b9bee18ceadc797e377ced11acd5b6a175006f85a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,025$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 7,845$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,649.08 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 1c | 4,618$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 0c | 4,489$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…caa7backed Yes | 1c | 3,370$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked Yes | 23c | 2,269$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.61 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…0acbbacked Yes | 60c | 1,785$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 70c | 1,745$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.45 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 1,618$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed No | 78c | 1,545$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed Yes | 1c | 1,455$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…5078backed No | 21c | 1,434$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 22c | 1,268$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed No | 75c | 1,183$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.13 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e7…b4a1backed Yes | 40c | 886.89$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 784.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 15c | 701.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 581.95$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 14c | 542.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 3c | 478.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.64 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 476.13$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 21c | 472.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed Yes | 22c | 455.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 76c | 419.5$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 9c | 399.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 43c | 377.26$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 26c | 359.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 49c | 332.92$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 30c | 317.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…b7b5backed No | 80c | 316.18$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 51c | 309.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 307.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 34c | 300.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.54 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…a203backed No | 71c | 299.95$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…3801backed Yes | 12c | 290.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 281.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 272.57$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 261.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 13c | 241.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…7140backed No | 12c | 240.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 235.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 71c | 215$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…4a41backed Yes | 47c | 213.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 19c | 190.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…d6f6backed Yes | 19c | 184.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 22c | 179.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 21c | 176.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 43c | 176.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 168.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 80c | 163.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 133.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 14c | 127.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 14c | 126.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 20c | 123.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 15c | 119.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 115.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…2541backed Yes | 11c | 112.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +240.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 43c | 108.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 60c | 108.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 27c | 107.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 22c | 107.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed No | 77c | 106.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 106.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 23c | 106.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 104.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…3ebebacked Yes | 51c | 93.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 36c | 92.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 89.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 28c | 88.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 30c | 87.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 22c | 87.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 25c | 77.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…6fb4backed Yes | 19c | 74.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 73.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 67c | 58.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 23c | 54.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 72c | 53.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 78c | 48.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3403…be7abacked Yes | 27c | 47.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 22c | 45.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 35c | 43.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…958fbacked Yes | 33c | 43.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3c…1593backed Yes | 32c | 41.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f3…9a94backed Yes | 70c | 40.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…1fe5backed Yes | 29c | 35.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 34c | 34.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…23a2backed No | 75c | 27.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.