Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x194c731dc5ad2ecf51679d910b1102f4299c8873d63a564a87bae5b357ad01a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 25c | 1,396$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…2541backed Yes | 3c | 1,188$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +240.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 18c | 667.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 649.04$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 9c | 531.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 18c | 478.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 5c | 355.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 347.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 21c | 309.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 63c | 309.4$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 298.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 269.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 226.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 12c | 212$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 208.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 10c | 208.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 18c | 201.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 5c | 194.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 16c | 185.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 183.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 10c | 174.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 170.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 170.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…5606backed Yes | 7c | 158.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 77c | 152.94$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 16c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 19c | 131.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 22c | 126.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…abe7backed No | 74c | 110.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb837…5534backed Yes | 27c | 102.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…d881backed No | 80c | 88.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 88.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 22c | 83.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…9921backed Yes | 14c | 82.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 19c | 82.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 20c | 79.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed No | 73c | 73.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…1b1cbacked Yes | 26c | 63.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 61.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b5…7ca1backed No | 79c | 51.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed No | 77c | 46.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…f1a7backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…7140backed No | 73c | 37.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 37c | 35.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…b7b5backed Yes | 31c | 35.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c6…76f3backed No | 77c | 31.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 79c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…0d71backed No | 65c | 29.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…0ab4backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 79c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…51d6backed No | 77c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 67cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.