Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f1cc37576244be81ca1eb6970b1e31eee94a1b3eca630a559fe71dc91371853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 1c | 2,851$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 1,610$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 45c | 1,412$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.03 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…4a41backed Yes | 48c | 1,082$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 27c | 1,044$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 69c | 1,028$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.71 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 66c | 895.22$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.82 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 57c | 482.56$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.46 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 473.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 25c | 430.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 40c | 402.18$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.42 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 387.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 75c | 332.62$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 62c | 302.18$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 288.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 18c | 283.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.83 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 63c | 249.77$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.61 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 7c | 208$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 207.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 206.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 205.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 44c | 203.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 188.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 56c | 171.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…7140backed No | 18c | 153.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 52c | 147.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 39c | 144.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 35c | 142.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 59c | 137.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…85adbacked Yes | 65c | 136.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae49…0f14backed Yes | 64c | 135.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 77c | 127.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 65c | 122.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 50c | 112.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d9…1eb8backed Yes | 46c | 102.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 72c | 102.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 41c | 102.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 33c | 102.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 20c | 98.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 47c | 98.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 11c | 95.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…39b8backed Yes | 63c | 84.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked No | 24c | 77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 39c | 74.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 73.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 46c | 63.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 59.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 38c | 58.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 47c | 58.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 18c | 56.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 70c | 55.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 36c | 52.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 26c | 50.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 24c | 49.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 68c | 48.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…c637backed Yes | 56c | 48.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 73c | 46.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 49c | 46.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 71c | 45.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 43c | 45.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 53c | 45.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 54c | 44.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 43.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…a135backed Yes | 67c | 43.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 40.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 47c | 40.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…b74abacked Yes | 73c | 40.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 63c | 39.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 54c | 35.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 54c | 35.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 57c | 33.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 58c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 58c | 32.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab17…7e38backed No | 63c | 32.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…3374backed No | 54c | 31.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3983…bd94backed Yes | 37c | 30.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked No | 60c | 30.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 69c | 29.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 50c | 27.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 56c | 27.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…3ca7backed Yes | 43c | 23.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 44c | 23.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1145…563ebacked Yes | 59c | 23.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 69c | 22.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 70c | 20.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.