Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b3c2e02287872933b7120d4b9bdd2d12df193943e48c6f26017a0a1150a1591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,853$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,602.17 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 0c | 2,578$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 9c | 1,896$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.01 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 1,761$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.06 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 77c | 1,448$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.88 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 1,223$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 23c | 1,098$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.91 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 17c | 923.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.42 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 889.41$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 14c | 711.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.7 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 704.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 6c | 699.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.64 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 681.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.88 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 15c | 660$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 79c | 644.55$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 33c | 606.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.23 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 2c | 509.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.28 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 6c | 499.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.48 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 487$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 21c | 482.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 14c | 481.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 12c | 472.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 468$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 13c | 455.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 37c | 447.65$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.49 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 4c | 434.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.42 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 419.14$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 18c | 415.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.35 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 398.49$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.83 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 392$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…76efbacked Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 354.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 349.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 337.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 334.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 36c | 310.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.18 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 7c | 288.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.66 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 266.39$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 62c | 248.25$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.01 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 23c | 229.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.91 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 6c | 221$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.74 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 20c | 220.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 205.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 13c | 203.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.69 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 33c | 195.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 79c | 185.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 9c | 179.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 26c | 171$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 6c | 169.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 8c | 166.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.53 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 7c | 136.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 22c | 129.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed No | 30c | 128.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 22c | 126$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 30c | 125$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed No | 72c | 124.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 124.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…b697backed Yes | 44c | 122.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 46c | 117.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…d7b9backed No | 17c | 113.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 24c | 107.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 23c | 104.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 76c | 103$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 51c | 102.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 101.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 53c | 100.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 10c | 100.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 62c | 99.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 40c | 93.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 73c | 82.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 51c | 77.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 76.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 75.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed Yes | 27c | 73.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 25c | 67.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 78c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed No | 78c | 63.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…2661backed Yes | 24c | 61.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 33c | 61.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Yes | 44c | 60.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 19c | 59.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…3806backed Yes | 27c | 55.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 76c | 52.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 29c | 50.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.