Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4eb7f238b2b715b5656f83c1c9bbaf2dc44ab71cac7437d01e7ead62c0133f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,319$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…e6a4backed Yes | 0c | 4,008$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 6c | 2,717$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…5535backed Yes | 1c | 2,049$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 9c | 1,625$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.13 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,542$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 6c | 1,007$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.67 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 24c | 893.7$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.7 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 858.34$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 711.85$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…4b16backed No | 73c | 708$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…cb2dbacked No | 59c | 675.85$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 630.85$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked No | 59c | 629.56$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 2c | 574.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…104cbacked No | 6c | 570.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked No | 28c | 451.47$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.03 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 8c | 380.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 320.03$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 47c | 318.01$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 69c | 305.57$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 11c | 304.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.53 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 6c | 275.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 7c | 269.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 268.05$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 250.91$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 247.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 236$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 222.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 216.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed No | 33c | 200.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 193.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 192.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 42c | 180$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 26c | 178.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed Yes | 8c | 171.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 68c | 161.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 44c | 157.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…08febacked Yes | 71c | 151.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 56c | 143.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 142$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 10c | 141.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 23c | 141.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 14c | 134.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 37c | 126$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…0529backed Yes | 37c | 123.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63a4backed No | 37c | 121.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 44c | 115.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 58c | 111.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 60c | 110.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 12c | 106.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 55c | 103.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1364backed Yes | 43c | 101.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 26c | 94.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 51c | 90.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 88.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 27c | 84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 19c | 79.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 37c | 76.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 76.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 30c | 70.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 20c | 69.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 68c | 61.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…0e02backed Yes | 42c | 60.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 18c | 59.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 67c | 59.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 55c | 56.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 37c | 54.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 26c | 53.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…65e9backed Yes | 40c | 50.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 20c | 50.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 28c | 48.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 55c | 48.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 50c | 45.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 39.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 37c | 38.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…3706backed Yes | 56c | 36.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 55c | 36.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 62c | 36.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…4ff6backed Yes | 55c | 35.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…163dbacked Yes | 46c | 34.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 62c | 30.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 73c | 30.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…d776backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.