Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66878a4f8834c8bf2a12c90bea002b622845d7eead0396499d0d382c4c3675ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 2c | 4,903$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,951$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 1,814$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 37c | 1,019$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.98 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 55c | 966.75$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.07 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 730.95$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.81 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 6c | 691.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…76efbacked Yes | 78c | 515.87$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 507.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 50c | 482.13$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.04 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 458.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 436.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 433.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 417.22$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 400.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 54c | 375.53$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 10c | 372.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 35c | 343.87$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 4c | 333.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 331.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 5c | 306.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 14c | 290.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 273.48$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 251.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 13c | 223.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 24c | 220.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 77c | 220.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 21c | 199.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 189.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 172$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 20c | 164.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 162.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 66c | 162.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 152.26$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 136.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 22c | 134.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 13c | 134$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 15c | 129.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 23c | 127.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 59c | 119.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…0529backed Yes | 40c | 116.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 110.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 41c | 109.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 43c | 102.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 101.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…65e9backed Yes | 66c | 98.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 55c | 91.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 26c | 90.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 86.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 59c | 84.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…d7b9backed No | 20c | 83.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 77c | 83.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…9418backed Yes | 77c | 65.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…b697backed Yes | 75c | 63.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 62.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 66c | 60.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 43c | 58.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 57.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 54c | 55.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 21c | 52.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 30c | 50.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 74c | 48.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 66c | 42.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 24c | 42.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 39c | 40.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 31.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…3706backed Yes | 68c | 30.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed No | 49c | 29.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 51c | 29.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9f…52e2backed Yes | 76c | 27.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…512fbacked Yes | 39c | 25.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed No | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…d776backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 24.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 59c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 15.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…6ae9backed No | 79c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.