Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x440bff3b58cb6af2599d053a229bfc75eb98402d6476a7e6e9fbe8fd947502e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 15,704$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 996.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8067…a98dbacked Yes | 54c | 918.71$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 909.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 434.17$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 412.98$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…3d7bbacked Yes | 3c | 349.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 6c | 335.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 4c | 298.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 256.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 55c | 182.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 47c | 175.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 49c | 151.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 150.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 135.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 15c | 134.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 8c | 130.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 39c | 129.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 8c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 53c | 124$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 59c | 123.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 65c | 116.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 77c | 111.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 45c | 110.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 104.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…76efbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 72c | 99.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 51c | 97.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 71c | 92.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 28c | 89.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 52c | 83.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 63.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 56c | 58.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 57.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…8007backed No | 52c | 53.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 74c | 49.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…3d58backed Yes | 48c | 41.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 48c | 41.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 46c | 39.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2315…a6b1backed Yes | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 54c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0d…387cbacked No | 77c | 36.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed Yes | 46c | 33.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 51c | 33.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…e3c0backed No | 53c | 19.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 57c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.