Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc4664c684f584fce1fc02803b6c27c5752141aa8d0a0d770a13e10a62cb5d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 31c | 891.18$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.46 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 77c | 492.35$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 387.41$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 356.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.07 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 43c | 328.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 37c | 261.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 255.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes | 31c | 223.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…e9b1backed Yes | 7c | 191.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 11c | 175.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 79c | 170.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 164.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 146.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 60c | 142.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 137.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 29c | 133.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 127.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 125.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 104.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 54c | 103.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 99.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 26c | 99.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 34c | 95.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 23c | 88.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 83.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 29c | 71.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed No | 62c | 66.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 37c | 63.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 60.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 39c | 60.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 26c | 59.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 58.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 56.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 54.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 54.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 54.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…db1cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 31c | 49.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed No | 75c | 45.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 44.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 25c | 40.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 40.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 28c | 39.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 37.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 34.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed No | 65c | 29.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 28.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked No | 69c | 25.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…ffa5backed No | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 58c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 68c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 77c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.