Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e22e633a4634bed4fb61b2d6f8f3964ee42c1c6ef47e88d036484618ae83313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 4c | 689.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 49c | 661.71$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.58 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 3c | 558.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…1a96backed No | 52c | 353.24$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 40c | 235.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.51 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 202.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 200.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 194.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 43c | 161.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 160.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 52c | 158.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…3121backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 40c | 149.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 143.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 51c | 142.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 54c | 139.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 68c | 128.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 63c | 126.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 112.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 72c | 107.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 106.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 104.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 60c | 99.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 95.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 66c | 88.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 82.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 65c | 76.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 66c | 73.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 43c | 65.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 63.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 19c | 57.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…6f82backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…28aebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…78d1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…3207backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…c731backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 39c | 47.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 52c | 45.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…78f0backed Yes | 36c | 42.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 51c | 42.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…93f7backed No | 52c | 41.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a59…9a2fbacked Yes | 47c | 40.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad9…69e4backed Yes | 51c | 34.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…44c0backed Yes | 66c | 32.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 29.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 66c | 24.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 68c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 66c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 74c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…bb53backed Yes | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.