Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3aa15452049d2c6e33866a955897c26642d51e047dd11f964f67d96384003ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 2c | 1,854$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 15c | 1,807$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.25 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 10c | 1,245$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 14c | 622.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 441 | 39%172 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 3c | 480$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 311.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 26c | 305.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 24c | 273.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 261.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 14c | 224.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 212.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 77c | 199.83$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 18c | 180.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…44c0backed Yes | 10c | 178.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 169.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 21c | 159.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 157.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 14c | 151.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…58debacked Yes | 19c | 148.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 30c | 133.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 10c | 129.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 79c | 123.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 123.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 14c | 120.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 117.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 114.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 663 | 27.8%184 W · 479 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 114.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 25c | 112.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 21c | 107.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 166 | 20.5%34 W · 132 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 75c | 106.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 23c | 99.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c6…5fadbacked Yes | 10c | 97.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 19c | 96.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 23c | 95.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 78c | 85.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 18c | 78.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 77.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 959 | 19.7%189 W · 770 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 23c | 71.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c5…7633backed Yes | 15c | 67.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 62.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b70…22ebbacked No | 76c | 61.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 22c | 52.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 353 | 69.4%245 W · 108 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 29c | 48.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 26c | 45.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 45.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 27c | 44.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 27c | 44.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked Yes | 28c | 43.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 39.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 77c | 33.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 424 | 52.8%224 W · 200 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 22.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 79c | 21.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 74c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.