Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b6f65f8b1a1bce87913bd7abd105ef6d548029c2e52ba615b5ed97f089334d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 598.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 4c | 506.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 391.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 274.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 267.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 220.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 201.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 185.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 73c | 141.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 131.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 27c | 129.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 31c | 124.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 12c | 113.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 94.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 15c | 83.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 70c | 79.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 77.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 71.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 24c | 63.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 58.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 57.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 56.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 78c | 49.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 31c | 46.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 46.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 46.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 73c | 37.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…78f0backed Yes | 29c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 30.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…de2dbacked No | 71c | 23.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed No | 75c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 77c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 73c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 73c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 75c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 75c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.