Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac9dd4113ec5833d2e25f72e24370fdbe06ce0f5c6ce44a7cf533f3e3f5e7806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 14c | 985.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.86 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 61c | 848.19$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 78c | 479.2$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 396.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 309.65$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 281.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.83 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 49c | 233.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 231.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 61c | 205.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 163.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 30c | 155.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 25c | 154.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 137.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.87 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 137.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 124.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 112.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 14c | 111.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 13c | 108.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 17c | 105.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 104.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 103.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 96.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 57c | 96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 31c | 94.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 21c | 87.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…69f2backed Yes | 21c | 82.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 32c | 81.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 18c | 80.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 21c | 68.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…867abacked Yes | 77c | 63.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 53.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 51.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 48.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 44c | 46.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8048backed Yes | 42c | 35.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 45c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 46c | 34.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 74c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 75c | 30.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed No | 65c | 29.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 75c | 28.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 68c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Yes | 69c | 17.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 80c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.