Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59e776c6698519c7000c2032d3a01e4001d90c6d42b5e6c3455af3893b0fcd44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 39c | 1,117$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.32 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 33c | 433.49$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca8…7005backed No | 66c | 291.48$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 284.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 274.83$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 254.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 207.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 200.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 197.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 67c | 193.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 148.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 136.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 121.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 120.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…e659backed Yes | 38c | 117.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 107.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 37c | 88.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 62c | 88.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 63c | 80.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 65c | 76.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 65c | 74.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 34c | 71.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 62.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 49.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 40c | 49.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 57c | 45.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 39.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 37.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked No | 69c | 35.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 63c | 35.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 33.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 32.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…de2dbacked No | 73c | 30.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…1287backed No | 64c | 30.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 65c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…a06ebacked Yes | 38c | 27.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 25.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 21.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.