Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8bb82890709e38c0efa705604187b389ffb60f7b9f057cfba40741a4f30a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 43c | 889.06$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.06 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 10c | 710.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…4df3backed Yes | 20c | 577.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 33c | 421.03$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 406.39$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 335.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…ddbebacked Yes | 44c | 288.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 262.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 204.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 45c | 201.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 199.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 70c | 189.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 35c | 183.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 80c | 150.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…cba6backed Yes | 14c | 109.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 53c | 104.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 25c | 99.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 99.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 90.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 88.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 84.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 84.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 82.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 81.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 25c | 72.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 43c | 72.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…cc1abacked No | 80c | 70.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 69.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 36c | 65.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 35c | 63.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 70c | 62.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 60.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 58.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 31c | 56.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 23c | 55.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 30c | 54.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 72c | 53.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…d45dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 31c | 47.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…e659backed Yes | 48c | 46.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 34c | 45.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 42.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 45c | 42.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa0…6ca0backed Yes | 47c | 40.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked No | 74c | 36.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 36.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 69c | 35.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 69c | 35.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 68c | 33.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8048backed Yes | 51c | 32.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 31.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 73c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 65c | 25.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 66c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 69c | 23.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 59c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 70c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 64c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 68c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 70c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…c868backed No | 71c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 80c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.