Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16068d9d4fdd1be1af8e584dabbc31ec79db37b4f84c0aa4af310230f4426361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 0c | 34,221$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 2,523$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 39c | 779.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.64 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 4c | 685.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 647.62$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked No | 35c | 638.16$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 5c | 573.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 41c | 507.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 454.02$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 17c | 434.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 5c | 383.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 35c | 380.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.63 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 56c | 372.85$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 63c | 358.81$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 342.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 322.08$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 29c | 309.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 63c | 305.92$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.59 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 60c | 268.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 14c | 266.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 61c | 266.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 5c | 260.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 61c | 250.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 39c | 247$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 53c | 245.17$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 4c | 239$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 58c | 233.14$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 221.67$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 220.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 44c | 214.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 10c | 212.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 6c | 208.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 203.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 192.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 64c | 189.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 48c | 186.35$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 66c | 185.21$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 171.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes | 22c | 155.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 139.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 136.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 71c | 134.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 56c | 133.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed No | 33c | 128.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 127.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 126.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade9…1990backed No | 37c | 122.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 38c | 121.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…3421backed No | 39c | 119.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 36c | 118.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 117.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 36c | 108.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 61c | 103.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 13c | 103.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed No | 69c | 101.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 64c | 100.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…4cf3backed No | 38c | 97.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked No | 33c | 97.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 45c | 96.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 87.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 46c | 87.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…4610backed No | 36c | 83.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 43c | 83.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 12c | 83.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 58c | 82.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 66c | 80.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 49c | 78.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 18c | 77.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 69c | 72.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…4b39backed Yes | 59c | 68.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 60c | 67.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 63c | 61.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 64c | 59.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 59.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…e17cbacked No | 44c | 58.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 53c | 57.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed No | 35c | 57.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 35c | 53.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked No | 45c | 52.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 67c | 50.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…a49abacked No | 45c | 49.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 59c | 49.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 64c | 49.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 59c | 48.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 64c | 48.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 75c | 47.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 43c | 45.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 44.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 42.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…09d2backed No | 72c | 41.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 53c | 41.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed No | 47c | 40.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed Yes | 56c | 37.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a30dbacked No | 38c | 36.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 66c | 36.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.