TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes0c34,221$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0411741%48 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes18c2,523$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.511,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed No39c779.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.6446733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes4c685.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes31c647.62$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf07a…060bbacked No35c638.16$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.731050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes5c573.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0912226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes41c507.43$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c454.02$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes17c434.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1635233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc086…6882backed Yes5c383.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.872924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No35c380.96$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6328718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes56c372.85$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.29028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked No63c358.81$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.796264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes11c342.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.615,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c322.08$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.071,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes29c309.31$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5412733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes63c305.92$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes70c299.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9911436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes60c268.97$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.915433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ea…6523backed Yes14c266.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.344060%24 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes61c266.67$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.372,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes5c260.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0410311.7%12 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes61c250.65$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6616529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No39c247$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed No53c245.17$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.11957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes4c239$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.524025%10 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes58c233.14$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.446848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No62c221.67$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.462,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes16c220.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.42,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No44c214.03$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6253437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes10c212.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8932830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307f…c327backed Yes6c208.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes6c203.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes39c192.47$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.021,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf387…5414backed Yes64c189.2$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.513729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No48c186.35$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.081,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd190…c9b2backed Yes66c185.21$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.382520%5 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c171.64$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.334,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes22c155.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes31c139.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.821,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No70c136.62$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No71c134.27$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.859959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes56c133.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f4c…a2c1backed No33c128.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.431855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No49c127.95$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.922,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes10c126.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1574023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade9…1990backed No37c122.19$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.421010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No38c121.16$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2934250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.237,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xda23…3421backed No39c119.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No36c118.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.491,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c117.51$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No36c108.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2919547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked Yes61c103.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes13c103.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.625344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…ae25backed No69c101.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.97757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed Yes64c100.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fab…f47bbacked No32c99.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-48.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x92d4…4cf3backed No38c97.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.541338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f12…aa7cbacked No33c97.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.017728.6%22 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No45c96.37$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.175164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes49c87.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No46c87.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6771…4610backed No36c83.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.93837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No43c83.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.727464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fab…775abacked Yes12c83.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01789%7 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes58c82.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8911223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes66c80.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.28432.1%27 W · 57 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c8c…7026backed No49c78.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.061822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes18c77.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5621930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked No69c72.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4613533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a9…4b39backed Yes59c68.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.751450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes60c67.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.616634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed Yes63c61.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.177061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes64c59.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5811737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c59.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2359125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde44…e17cbacked No44c58.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes53c57.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0398236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ac…fcc5backed No35c57.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.38580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+55.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No35c53.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1615749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked No45c52.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.882055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes67c50.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.613,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83dd…a49abacked No45c49.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.43988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No59c49.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2938961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes64c49.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5772466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes59c48.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7528648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked Yes64c48.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1118272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No75c47.77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.977754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No43c45.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0781756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes59c44.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.969,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No68c42.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x380b…09d2backed No72c41.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes53c41.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9931062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c8c…f5e2backed No47c40.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.582729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed Yes56c37.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59d5…a30dbacked No38c36.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+127.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes66c36.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2429770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.