TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6771…4610

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
23
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Weather, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 51 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.68
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$3.64
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on April 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.79
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+180%+$53.93
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or higher on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.29
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.48
All 8 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.