Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22b8ce490f921e35d07c5b57cebf57dcd2b2c8bf780fa64d31d72d250497abaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 24c | 637.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 77c | 450.8$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a2…5febbacked Yes | 75c | 388.87$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked Yes | 79c | 247.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 245.31$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 52c | 238.04$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed No | 34c | 189.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 62c | 179.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 41c | 164.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 54c | 131.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 39c | 125.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked No | 45c | 104.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4536backed Yes | 72c | 91.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 90.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 54c | 81.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 48c | 74.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 62.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 55c | 59.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 46c | 56.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 30c | 50.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…e544backed Yes | 70c | 45.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 65c | 44.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 43.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 47c | 40.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 37c | 40.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 79c | 39.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 47c | 39.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 35c | 38.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 47c | 38.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…4610backed No | 31c | 38.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 55c | 38.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 79c | 37.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 46c | 36.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 71c | 36.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 47c | 35.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 44c | 33.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 60c | 31.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 77c | 31.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 38c | 31.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…00f4backed No | 37c | 31.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf2…0aa6backed Yes | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…2164backed No | 42c | 25.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 58c | 24.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 45c | 22.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 71c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 59c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 66c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…4053backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.