Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a39e4e390a6fa7e56d7a27de0c813327e2d6c841df6b71fd99287dae7a0393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 18c | 2,316$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.4 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 15c | 987.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 11c | 680.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 15c | 651.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed No | 12c | 497.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 77c | 432.86$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 17c | 361.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 10c | 263.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2168…c154backed No | 13c | 243.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 12c | 198.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 197.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 12c | 177.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 16c | 166.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed No | 15c | 147.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed No | 12c | 143.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 14c | 125.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 11c | 117.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 17c | 116.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 16c | 115.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 14c | 102.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 31c | 95.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…2164backed No | 11c | 94.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…4610backed No | 16c | 94.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 14c | 93.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…98e2backed No | 14c | 91.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 13c | 90.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 68c | 87.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…c306backed No | 13c | 86.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed No | 13c | 85.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…ccebbacked No | 14c | 82.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…7880backed No | 15c | 77.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…1caebacked No | 15c | 77.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…79e0backed No | 15c | 77.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 16c | 62.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 63c | 60.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.