Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60e9d1de6280db1b1699d94b4329adbb91c80ce61e465e06d50aef0d38fb416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 203.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 174.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 11c | 166.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 151.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 50c | 150.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 10c | 144.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 19c | 128.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 114.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…b669backed No | 71c | 110.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 42c | 91.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 73c | 85.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 83.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 41c | 82.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 78.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked No | 58c | 72.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 39c | 65.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 46c | 62.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 61.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 65c | 59.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 55.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 54.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 31c | 52.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 68c | 48.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 63c | 44.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…608ebacked No | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 41c | 39.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 38.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…4610backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 58c | 23.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 78c | 22.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 71c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 69c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 58c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.