TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83e8…7b89backed No13c5,902$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.691442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No9c4,549$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.221145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed No24c4,549$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.4360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No8c2,746$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.642152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No10c2,696$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.541513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No4c2,227$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.17378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c1,887$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.554629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No7c1,682$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No20c1,579$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.48737.9%33 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No4c1,483$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No6c1,248$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.761216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-71.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No9c1,190$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.72166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-78.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa817…6714backed Yes77c1,156$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf81…697dbacked No9c1,128$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-27.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8dfe…3c49backed No5c1,022$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No5c976.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.01695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No5c956.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.192934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c906.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No15c906.2$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.44156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-80.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed No13c904.02$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.31747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f61…d9d5backed No2c681.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No4c660.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.463917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed No22c609$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No9c571$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.161844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a77…40e9backed Yes75c557.66$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No10c547$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.356043.3%26 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c6…e6c0backed No2c490.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c488.83$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c2…460abacked No3c481.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No8c454.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.287844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c435.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-84.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No5c431.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.288739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No5c405.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0251…07ffbacked No8c382.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1477…17e4backed Yes80c377.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7368…fd66backed No21c370.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa848…8a1fbacked No20c365.49$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No21c300.48$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+247.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c295.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.788128.4%23 W · 58 L-10.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No5c285.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.076710.4%7 W · 60 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No10c275.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.483135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No11c267.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+698%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebc…e34bbacked No15c261.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x984d…3bb2backed Yes77c260.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No7c260$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.443710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed Yes77c259.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…5ee0backed No26c255.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c242.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.727710.4%8 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed No5c231.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3b…9240backed No13c220.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No8c219.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.46714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No11c216.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.14751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No18c193.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.931338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629e…6be4backed No8c189.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64a…178dbacked No11c184.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No11c180.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0322640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6771…4610backed No9c180.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c9…b469backed Yes75c176.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc6…6d94backed No14c161.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No10c155.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.291656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No7c155$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick14cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes77c146.69$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.691241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ae…69c6backed No16c140.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…9206backed Yes79c140$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No8c137$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.551030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eff…7a96backed Yes78c133.85$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc697…5459backed Yes77c129.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Yes76c129.12$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No14c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed No22c110.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd064…2704backed No12c105.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x244b…c0fdbacked No23c101.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No16c97.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick21cpaid+190.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No15c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.893256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No16c80.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.892611.5%3 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-70.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc92f…20b2backed No13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2731…6e32backed No27c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb4c…971cbacked Yes79c69.58$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No18c66.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26e8…bc94backed Yes78c64.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed No16c62.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f5…5eb9backed Yes80c62.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff3…fb54backed Yes80c62.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed No18c56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf900…908fbacked Yes73c54.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5c…70e8backed Yes71c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9129…8555backed Yes79c47.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511b…c8f6backed Yes78c46.24$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c3…0648backed Yes71c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb731…5797backed Yes77c39.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda8b…f0d9backed Yes77c38.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…4e00backed Yes78c38.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes78c36.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…1587backed Yes73c33.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfee…1cf0backed Yes79c31.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31f…2e03backed Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3f…e8b6backed Yes68c29.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64bd…fc62backed Yes78c29.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.