Music · resolved market
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a2b7d699a0b8cf970fc1599cb6e54065f86b1b4476316654a23aa21691aa7ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 10c | 5,412$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.85 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 21c | 2,820$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 10c | 2,715$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 7c | 2,323$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.01 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…ee94backed Yes | 5c | 2,073$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 18c | 1,975$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.35 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,735$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…9075backed Yes | 6c | 1,661$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 9c | 1,599$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes | 11c | 1,344$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 8c | 1,152$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 6c | 921$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6f…922ebacked Yes | 3c | 915.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 21c | 846.84$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 9c | 695$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 5c | 672.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 11c | 535.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed1…a782backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 16c | 465.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 10c | 435.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…e047backed Yes | 3c | 393.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…9edcbacked Yes | 14c | 330.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…8a1fbacked Yes | 17c | 326.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 10c | 322.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 14c | 318.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…1eb4backed Yes | 16c | 304.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…a1f1backed Yes | 13c | 302.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 71c | 240$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…d169backed Yes | 11c | 229.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…460abacked Yes | 13c | 223.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…7689backed Yes | 10c | 201.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…c8f6backed Yes | 20c | 183.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 12c | 173.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…75cbbacked Yes | 13c | 172.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…7952backed Yes | 12c | 148.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…e34bbacked Yes | 15c | 137.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 12c | 122.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…65ccbacked Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 12c | 107.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +698%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 11c | 102.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +247.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…510abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…1c72backed Yes | 18c | 99.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 74.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…95cdbacked Yes | 29c | 69.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…7eaebacked Yes | 29c | 61.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5961backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 75c | 53.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…70e8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed No | 75c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Yes won
- Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.