Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da1ec5dcc3c308f461c221128eac5f4fb5dd89ce43920d76a24eae57de86d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 2c | 1,165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 725.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 38c | 546.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 62c | 433.55$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.78 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 356.77$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 311.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 277.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 52c | 264.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 51c | 237.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 229.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 27c | 221.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 57c | 211.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 207.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 60c | 206.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 192.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 161.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 152.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 8c | 134.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 54c | 132.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 25c | 131.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 56c | 131.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 38c | 120.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed Yes | 28c | 114.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 49c | 105.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 47c | 103.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 40c | 99.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 52c | 94.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 62c | 93.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 87.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 41c | 87.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 43c | 86.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 51c | 84.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 79.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 42c | 70.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 60c | 70.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 58c | 66.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 30c | 63.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 52c | 63.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 49c | 62.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 50c | 62.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 43c | 61.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 23c | 61.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 48c | 59.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 47c | 57.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 49c | 57.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 55c | 57.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 52c | 53.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 50c | 52.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 49c | 52.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 55c | 52.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…abbbbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 54c | 49.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 62c | 48.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 47.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 52c | 47.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbf…1b94backed No | 49c | 47.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 51c | 45.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…3253backed No | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 55c | 43.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 52c | 41.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 48c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 38c | 36.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 53c | 35.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 48c | 34.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 58c | 34.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 75c | 33.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 32.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 46c | 32.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 40c | 32.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 43c | 31.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 47c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 49c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 72c | 30.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 56c | 29.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 42c | 29.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 55c | 29.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 48c | 28.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed No | 47c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 46c | 27.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 78c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed No | 48c | 27.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 46c | 26.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 54c | 26.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…d971backed Yes | 56c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 51c | 25.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7431…be26backed Yes | 54c | 25.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.