Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb33634ade7fc3323a0469742cb240093afd20d74103ccd86488f8028f62cb7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 357.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 308$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 62c | 281.68$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 278.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…a201backed No | 10c | 223.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked Yes | 47c | 207.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 37c | 141.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 49c | 135.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 31c | 130.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 121.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 63c | 119.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 118.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 63c | 109.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 97.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 96.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 69c | 85.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 34c | 85.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 81.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 28c | 78.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 26c | 76.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 75.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 74.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 73c | 74.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 69.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 53c | 68.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed Yes | 59c | 65.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 32c | 61.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 58.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 71c | 57.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 71c | 52.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…abbbbacked Yes | 44c | 48.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 40c | 47.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 52c | 46.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 45.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 51c | 44.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…13eabacked Yes | 29c | 44.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 48c | 38.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 38.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 66c | 36.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 69c | 34.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f8…29d2backed No | 75c | 33.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 54c | 32.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 40c | 32.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 31.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 37c | 31.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 33c | 31.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…d61ebacked No | 75c | 28.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 28.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 53c | 27.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 27.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 68c | 27.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 71c | 26.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 24.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…2c42backed No | 50c | 24.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 72c | 15.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.