Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17669c1b2162213734e7d2de7a7188e0ccea0ed238101a0d8a0b830937651523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 0c | 42,524$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 5c | 623.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 17c | 592.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 15c | 563.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 17c | 560.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 24c | 543.96$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 455.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 7c | 396.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 385.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 352.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 17c | 307.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 287.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…d51bbacked Yes | 12c | 271.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 9c | 252.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 243.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 9c | 232.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 218.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 190.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 17c | 189.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 46c | 167.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 159.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 145.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 140.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 26c | 127.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 76c | 126.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 38c | 124.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…0dcdbacked Yes | 20c | 123.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 20c | 123.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 20c | 123.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 20c | 123.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 119.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 24c | 106.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 14c | 103.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 25c | 98.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…9e98backed Yes | 25c | 95.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 12c | 93.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 29c | 89.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…6cc9backed Yes | 29c | 88.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe3…dbdbbacked Yes | 32c | 86.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -82%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 43c | 79.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 15c | 77.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 77.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…d5cdbacked Yes | 35c | 77.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 24c | 74.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 20c | 73.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 62c | 68.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 63.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 64c | 63.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 18c | 61.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 58.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 22c | 48.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cbc8backed Yes | 34c | 47.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed Yes | 55c | 43.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Yes | 28c | 42.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 36.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…cd3abacked Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 70c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…9ed6backed No | 68c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 71c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…c629backed No | 70c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 70c | 18.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.