MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc77f0b3aa879543683f4eb4ad0197bdc84294b5445308a02339d0545e381d7ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 47c | 5,657$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.66 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 2,423$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 53c | 1,917$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 56c | 1,578$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.54 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 1,458$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 45c | 1,385$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.11 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,112$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.4 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,007$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 702.96$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 36c | 648.9$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked Over | 44c | 640$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 574.38$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 488.67$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.51 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 55c | 485.02$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 47c | 350.09$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.54 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…13c0backed Under | 72c | 348.73$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Over | 44c | 301.93$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 301$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 56c | 273.45$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 52c | 265.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…4610backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 63.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 60.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 55.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 55c | 44.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 44c | 44.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 38.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Under | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…af3ebacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 55c | 21.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.