MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6b4f729316f24e34d95a019e649ebf750155c05053ffeb376b8a4e4f1108f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 4,868$3,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.69 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 3,703$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 1,283$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 988.05$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 952$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 885$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 727.23$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.7 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 427.09$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 342.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 319.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 241.06$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 25c | 210.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…6e29backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 114.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 101.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 65.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 56.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…62babacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 50.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 37.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 36.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 32.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 24.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.