MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f986ba9839c823bf1f9d730552f2ac6be6abe70ef7945860945cebaac42df84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 54c | 1,944$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.41 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 46c | 1,914$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.63 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 46c | 1,661$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.39 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 984.26$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 53c | 519$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.93 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 32c | 504.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 55c | 358.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 258.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed No | 67c | 217.87$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 53c | 195.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…c7eebacked No | 54c | 175.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 46c | 158.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed No | 72c | 142.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 54c | 82.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 35c | 81.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 66c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 44c | 58.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…4e57backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked No | 53c | 35.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.