Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5e13ca22526d663830444d8f1d7f15a28236d78132bcae169fbe9d519826f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 36,491$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 1c | 17,574$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 1c | 7,514$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 1c | 3,112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…6d0abacked Yes | 1c | 2,042$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9718backed Yes | 1c | 1,981$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 2c | 1,599$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,166$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 12c | 767.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 2c | 700.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 3c | 506.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 3c | 504.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 458.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 8c | 329.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 288.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…36c6backed Yes | 9c | 278.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 261.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 10c | 260.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 252.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 5c | 214.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 5c | 212.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 193$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 8c | 174.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 13c | 172.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…57febacked Yes | 8c | 159.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 34c | 131.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 126.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 66c | 123.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 65c | 119.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 118.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 29c | 99.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…e0e7backed No | 66c | 60.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 33c | 57.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 37c | 54.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 34c | 46.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 63c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…d816backed Yes | 35c | 40.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e9…1077backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 27.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 38c | 26.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 64c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.