Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x782641e63eb8d01876979c437ec1425374385bb006cc8c2e74958d156abe56e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 16,199$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 1c | 13,929$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 0c | 4,950$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 1c | 3,363$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed Yes | 1c | 2,674$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…3d9abacked Yes | 1c | 2,456$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 1c | 1,922$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 3c | 899.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 2c | 775.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 3c | 715.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 666.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 3c | 399.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 386.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 12c | 212.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 9c | 138$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 24c | 131.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 75.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…610bbacked Yes | 21c | 75.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 80c | 53.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 79c | 17.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…13b5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.