Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700c2251a68ea3a1ce68e429d3c73f6ae7cb7291b7ceaa22d5f07891e7cbaf97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,556$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 2,548$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 14c | 2,065$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,821$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.94 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,502$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 8c | 1,222$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 884.54$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 869.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 18c | 867.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 21c | 826.23$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 719.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 718.7$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.27 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 29c | 650.07$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 33c | 561.11$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 13c | 545.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 17c | 528.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 26c | 516.03$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 491.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 5c | 427.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 425.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 11c | 404$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed No | 78c | 362.88$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9718backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 5c | 306.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 24c | 271.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1364backed Yes | 16c | 263.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 25c | 239$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…ed1fbacked Yes | 33c | 238.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 236.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…c83ebacked Yes | 8c | 222.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 41c | 199.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 6c | 191.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 14c | 180.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 76c | 176.14$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 9c | 170.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 160.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 13c | 156.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 19c | 155.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked Yes | 15c | 153.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…57febacked Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed Yes | 10c | 133.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 27c | 131.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed No | 77c | 129.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…e0e7backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 67c | 116.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 14c | 114.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 11c | 113.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 108.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…993bbacked Yes | 11c | 105.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 13c | 104.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…4124backed Yes | 10c | 100.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…a251backed Yes | 18c | 98.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 89.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 88.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 77.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 21c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 66.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 65.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 27c | 56.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 61c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 29.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 28.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…5fa8backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 76c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 77c | 17.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…b912backed No | 80c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.