Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b974c54baa978f7cf862de16b0389a415cdbedc6ac5f8bbaa40f25eb613d336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 1c | 5,303$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 5c | 4,382$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 3c | 2,531$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 1,717$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 11c | 1,691$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 71c | 1,510$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.39 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 73c | 1,327$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed No | 1c | 1,231$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 9c | 814.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 773.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…6441backed No | 4c | 696.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 647.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 9c | 580.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 551$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 37c | 509.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 506.2$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 471$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 6c | 463.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 69c | 453.64$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 13c | 422.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 61c | 402.82$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 12c | 334.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 29c | 332.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 16c | 315.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 11c | 281$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 14c | 279$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 6c | 232.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 68c | 231.76$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…ed1fbacked Yes | 61c | 227.13$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 219.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked No | 17c | 215.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 206.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 67c | 201.63$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 190$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 7c | 152.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 13c | 149.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 79c | 141.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 30c | 131.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked No | 37c | 125.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 122.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 61c | 120.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 66c | 119.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…1d00backed Yes | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 70c | 106.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…7b9bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 80c | 82.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 56c | 77.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 55c | 73.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 50c | 68.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…a597backed No | 40c | 63.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…e0e7backed No | 66c | 60.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 62c | 57.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 51.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes | 64c | 51.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 40c | 51.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 50.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 39c | 49.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…36c6backed No | 40c | 49.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 35c | 44.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 64c | 43.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9a8fbacked No | 37c | 40.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 37c | 37.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 33c | 37.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6954…80f6backed Yes | 68c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 66c | 31.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 68c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…27cdbacked Yes | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 53c | 28.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 25.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…4623backed No | 66c | 24.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 49c | 24.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 22.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.