Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd130f22e21d1a6688e33c4644c9e5c658c82e8ea7aa9e8af0419fa125afda7e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1572…cb78backed Yes | 2c | 981.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 31c | 423.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 76c | 410.95$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 15c | 357.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed No | 77c | 338.87$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 19c | 179.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes | 29c | 159.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 155.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 153.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 146.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 146.32$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 23c | 130.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 128.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 22c | 112.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 27c | 108.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 14c | 107.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 103.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 12c | 96.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 33c | 95.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 90.16$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 82.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 24c | 69.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 67.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 30c | 61.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 18c | 60.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 49.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 33c | 47.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 29c | 37.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 67c | 37.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 64c | 35.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 68c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 28.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 80c | 24.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 70c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 14.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.