Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8384d43031a9bec89ab9fb4e537175f9c5c74bd8f803b7b19a5b8a462890124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked No | 7c | 561.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 6c | 455.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 416.85$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 298.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 247.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 9c | 211.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 199.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 195.14$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 181.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 30c | 175.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 11c | 164.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 159.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 145.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 77c | 139.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 25c | 125.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 124.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 39c | 112.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 111.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 111.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 106.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 104.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 21c | 99.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 96.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 93.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 25c | 73.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 76c | 72.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 34c | 64.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 62.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 70c | 52.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 41c | 50.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 25c | 49.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 48.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 45.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 42.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 56c | 39.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 76c | 34.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 29.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 27.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed No | 73c | 26.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 80c | 25.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 24.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 75c | 24.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 64c | 17.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 79c | 16.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 74c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 73c | 13.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.