Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa17d04c3da6f30131835f52a4e6daaec1d7b0d728f8d7b4eee6a7b8898a05247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 46c | 617.56$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.42 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 359.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 338.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 337.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 259.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 67c | 246.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 231.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 147.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 141.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 140.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes | 35c | 108.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 106.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 61c | 101.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 68c | 93.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 87.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 86.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…cb78backed Yes | 49c | 85.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 47c | 78.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 37c | 76.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 75.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 40c | 65.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 67c | 64.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 32c | 64.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 64.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 64.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 62.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 41c | 56.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa062…7511backed Yes | 68c | 55.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 58c | 54.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 41c | 53.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 69c | 52.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 50.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 59c | 48.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 40c | 48.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 29c | 48.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…4b28backed Yes | 39c | 47.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 61c | 45.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e5e0backed Yes | 47c | 45.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 44.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 44.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 38.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 37c | 37.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 64c | 37.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 52c | 36.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 36.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 58c | 35.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 43c | 33.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 69c | 32.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 70c | 30.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 63c | 30.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 66c | 29.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 40c | 28.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Yes | 70c | 27.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 26.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 49c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 61c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 62c | 22.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 69c | 21.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 69c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 58c | 19.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 66c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 17.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 60c | 17.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 75c | 13.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.